KKN Gurugram Desk | Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in April 2025, the Indian government has significantly escalated its diplomatic pressure on Pakistan. In a series of stern retaliatory measures, New Delhi has:

• Suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty,

• Reduced diplomatic staff,

• Discontinued the SAARC visa exemption for Pakistani nationals, and

• Closed the Attari border checkpoint.

Now, India is reportedly preparing to take another decisive step by refusing to participate in upcoming meetings related to the Indus Waters Treaty facilitated by the World Bank and Neutral Expert Michel Lino.

 Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: A Diplomatic Game-Changer

On April 22, 2025, in response to the terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir’s Pahalgam, India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a historic water-sharing agreement signed with Pakistan in 1960 under the World Bank’s auspices.

This move marked a major policy shift and was interpreted globally as a signal of India’s hardening diplomatic posture.

 India May Boycott Neutral Expert Meetings

According to credible sources, India is now considering a formal withdrawal from the scheduled meetings involving Neutral Expert Michel Lino, who is overseeing water disputes under the treaty framework.

A senior government official told KKNLive:

“With the treaty suspended, India has no obligation to participate in dispute resolution processes under its current framework. A formal communication to the Neutral Expert’s office is under preparation.”

 Vienna PCA Meeting May Be Disrupted

The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) was scheduled to hold a meeting in Vienna this November, concerning the ongoing disputes over India’s Kishanganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) hydroelectric projects.

India’s potential withdrawal from this process would significantly impact the international adjudication of water-sharing disagreements, especially since the PCA is already mediating Pakistan’s complaints.

 Background: The India-Pakistan Water Dispute Timeline

Key Project Disputes:

• Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (330 MW)

  • Located in Gurez on the Jhelum River

  • Objected to by Pakistan in 2006

• Ratle Hydroelectric Project (850 MW)

  • Located on the Chenab River

  • Faced formal objections from Pakistan in subsequent years

Pakistan has raised seven specific objections across these two major Indian hydro projects. The disagreements range from design specifications to environmental impact assessments.

Breakdown of India’s Diplomatic Actions Post-Pahalgam

India’s response to the April 2025 terror attack was swift and broad-based. Here’s a summary of the diplomatic measures:

 Strategic Context: Why Indus Waters Treaty Matters

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allocates water usage between the two countries:

• Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India

• Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan

While India retains limited rights over the western rivers, the treaty has remained a rare pillar of cooperation amid volatile bilateral relations.

Suspending it marks a diplomatic escalation with serious implications.

World Bank’s Role: A Neutral But Central Player

The World Bank, as a guarantor of the treaty, has historically played a role in facilitating:

• Appointment of Neutral Experts

• Technical assistance for dispute resolution

• Supervision of arbitration procedures through PCA

By pulling out of engagements with both the World Bank and Neutral Expert Michel Lino, India is signaling that the treaty framework itself is under challenge.

Pakistan’s Complaints and India’s Stand

Pakistan has frequently alleged that Indian dam projects violate the design and flow principles of the treaty. However, India has consistently maintained that:

“All hydroelectric projects are well within the permissible scope of the IWT. Pakistan’s objections are politically motivated.”

The suspension of talks and withdrawal from the arbitration processes suggests that India no longer sees utility in pursuing dialogue under the treaty’s current structure.

 Domestic Political and Strategic Signals

India’s actions are not just aimed at Islamabad but also meant to send a message domestically and internationally:

• To the Indian public: The government is acting decisively against terrorism.

• To the international community: India will not tolerate proxy-sponsored violence without consequences.

• To Pakistan: Diplomatic isolation and economic pressure will escalate without behavioral change.

 Impact on Regional Stability

While the Indus Waters Treaty had been lauded globally as a model of cross-border water cooperation, its suspension introduces several risks:

• Increased bilateral tensions

• Escalation in border conflicts over water access

• Reduced international mediation opportunities

Some experts warn that the situation may impact South Asian water diplomacy, especially amid growing climate stress in the region.

What Experts Are Saying

Dr. Meera Deshpande, Strategic Affairs Analyst:

“India’s decision reflects a paradigm shift. We are now in an era of transactional diplomacy where terrorism and treaties cannot be separated.”

Col. R.K. Sharma (Retd.), Defense Analyst:

“The Pahalgam attack was the last straw. This is a recalibration of India’s red lines. Water, once seen as a neutral domain, is now a strategic instrument.”

What Next? India’s Options Going Forward

• Permanent Withdrawal from IWT: Though not officially announced, legal experts say it is possible under international law if national security is invoked.

• Bilateral Treaty Redrafting: India may push for a new agreement reflecting current geopolitical realities.

• Further Diplomatic Cuts: Trade and transport links could also be restricted.

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and decision to withdraw from neutral expert proceedings reflect a fundamental shift in how it views Pakistan as a treaty partner. With terrorism, diplomacy, and resource-sharing now interconnected, the era of compartmentalized engagement is over.

While this shift could isolate Pakistan further, it also sets a new benchmark in how India responds to cross-border provocations in the future.