KKN Gurugram Desk | India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the 2025 southwest monsoon will reach Kerala within the next 24 hours—almost a week ahead of its usual schedule. If the forecast proves accurate, this will be the earliest onset of monsoon in 16 years, with 2009 and 2001 being the last years when the monsoon reached the state on May 23.

The normal onset date for the monsoon in Kerala is June 1, but the intensifying low-pressure systems, high humidity, and active cloud patterns over the Arabian Sea are aiding its accelerated movement this year.

 Historical Monsoon Onset Trends in Kerala

• Earliest ever recorded: 11 May 1918

• Latest onset: 18 June 1972

• Most recent early arrival: 23 May in 2001 and 2009

• Delayed monsoon in recent memory: 9 June 2016

 Why Monsoon Onset Is Crucial for India

India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the monsoon months (June to September). The arrival of the monsoon:

• Replenishes groundwater and reservoirs

• Is vital for kharif crop sowing

• Boosts rural income and food security

• Impacts GDP through agriculture’s contribution

IMD has predicted above-average rainfall for 2025, increasing expectations of record kharif output, especially in rice, maize, cotton, soybean, and oilseeds.

 Weather Systems Supporting Early Monsoon

• A low-pressure area is active over the east-central Arabian Sea, which is expected to intensify and move northward in the next 36 hours.

• This system is enhancing moisture inflow across Kerala and neighboring states.

• Kerala has already experienced widespread rainfall over the past two days due to advancing monsoon conditions.

 Where Is the Monsoon Headed Next?

According to IMD, the southwest monsoon is likely to advance into:

• South and Central Arabian Sea

• Maldives and Comorin region

• Lakshadweep Islands

• Parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu

• South and central Bay of Bengal

• Northern Bay of Bengal and northeast India

This marks a rapid progress, suggesting timely rain for most parts of India.

 Impact on Agriculture and Economy

The early monsoon could:

• Help pre-monsoon sowing activities

• Improve reservoir levels ahead of the rabi season

• Boost rural confidence

• Contribute to GDP growth through increased farm output

Farmers across states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh will benefit from early field preparation and timely sowing.

 Relief from Heatwave Expected

Large parts of India, especially central and northwestern regions, have been reeling under heat. The advancing monsoon is expected to ease temperatures and reduce heatwave conditions, especially along the western coast and interior southern India.

 Close Monitoring by IMD

IMD officials are monitoring monsoon conditions in real time, with a ±4-day model margin for Kerala’s onset. This year’s forecast falls well within that window, suggesting a high degree of accuracy.