KKN Gurugram Desk | The political temperature in Bihar is soaring as the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 draw closer, with significant shifts already visible within the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Central Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan’s recent declaration to contest all 243 assembly seats, made during a rally in Arrah on June 8, has sent ripples across the state’s political circles. This assertive move has put Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United) in an uncomfortable position. Meanwhile, Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary’s emphasis on alliance unity under Nitish Kumar’s leadership signals the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) strategic “balancing act” within the NDA. Amidst this internal churn, the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav, remains a vigilant observer, poised to capitalize on any cracks in the opposition’s unity.

Chirag Paswan’s Aggressive Political Play

Chirag Paswan’s declaration in Arrah on June 8 has intensified the political discourse in Bihar. His statement, “I will contest elections on all 243 assembly seats in Bihar and ensure NDA’s victory,” not only underscores his burgeoning political ambition but is also widely interpreted as a strategic move to exert pressure on seat-sharing negotiations within the NDA. While sources suggest that Chirag Paswan’s party might be offered around 25-28 seats, his public assertion is seen as a clear attempt to bargain for a larger share from both JDU and BJP. Paswan is reportedly eyeing 40 to 50 seats, a significant increase from previous estimations.

Chirag Paswan’s strategy stems from the 2020 assembly elections, where his rebellion against JDU led to a significant split in their votes across 35 seats, reducing JDU’s tally to just 43 seats. This outcome pushed JDU from its traditional top position in Bihar politics to the third spot. This time, Paswan’s strategy aims to contest general seats as well, moving beyond his image as solely a Dalit leader to emerge as a leader for all sections of society. His youthful appeal and the slogan ‘Bihar First, Bihari First’ are gaining traction among Dalit and non-Yadav backward classes, which could pose a significant challenge to Nitish Kumar’s traditional vote bank.

Increasing Pressure on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar

Chirag Paswan’s bold statements have undoubtedly compounded Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s political challenges. Recent surveys indicate a decline in Nitish’s popularity, with leaders like Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor reportedly surging ahead. Speculations surrounding Nitish Kumar’s health and JDU’s underwhelming performance in the 2020 elections further weaken his standing. In this context, Chirag Paswan’s assertion is viewed as a wake-up call for JDU, as it raises questions about internal cohesion within the Bihar NDA alliance. The BJP, however, is actively working to maintain equilibrium within this complex political landscape.

BJP’s Balancing Act in Bihar NDA

The BJP is seemingly content with Nitish Kumar remaining the face of the NDA in Bihar, yet it’s not overlooking Chirag Paswan’s growing ambitions. According to sources, the NDA seat-sharing formula is nearing finalization, with JDU likely to get 102-103 seats, BJP 101-102, and Chirag’s party around 25-28 seats. The BJP is strategically projecting Chirag as a young Dalit leader to counter Tejashwi Yadav’s influence, but it’s also treading cautiously to avoid antagonizing Nitish Kumar. Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary’s recent statement, “Under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the NDA will contest elections unitedly and form the government,” underscores BJP’s delicate approach.

Samrat Choudhary reiterated the BJP’s commitment to Bihar’s development under the combined leadership of Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Modi. However, his cautious tone when addressing Chirag Paswan’s assertiveness highlighted BJP’s attempt to balance power dynamics. Choudhary also took a dig at Tejashwi Yadav, stating that Lalu Yadav and his son did not conduct any caste-based census during their 15-year rule. He credited the NDA government, under PM Modi’s leadership, for the national-level decision on caste census. This statement is clearly part of BJP’s strategy to corner the Mahagathbandhan on social justice issues while simultaneously maintaining balance within the Bihar NDA.

Mahagathbandhan Keeps a Keen Eye on NDA’s Internal Dynamics

Meanwhile, Tejashwi Yadav and the Mahagathbandhan are attempting to capitalize on the internal turmoil within the NDA. Tejashwi Yadav has been actively pressuring the central government on the issue of caste census, but Samrat Choudhary’s statement sought to undermine his narrative by presenting it as an achievement of CM Nitish and PM Modi. The Mahagathbandhan’s meeting on June 12 is expected to further sharpen Tejashwi’s focus on seat-sharing and social justice issues, aiming to leverage any internal discord within the NDA.

Bihar’s Political Battleground: A Fascinating Turn

In essence, amidst the political attacks from the Mahagathbandhan, Chirag Paswan’s declaration to contest all 243 seats in the Bihar elections reflects his political ambition and strategy to strengthen his position within the NDA. This poses a direct challenge to Nitish Kumar, whose popularity and health continue to be subjects of speculation. The BJP, under Samrat Choudhary’s leadership, is diligently working to maintain a delicate balance between Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan to preserve alliance unity. On the other side, Tejashwi Yadav stands ready to exploit this situation. Bihar’s political battlefield is now taking an intriguing turn, not just between alliances but also within the NDA itself.