KKN Gurugram Desk | As TikTok faces a potential shutdown in the United States on January 19, the debate intensifies over whether President-elect Donald Trump will intervene or let the ban proceed. With 170 million users in the U.S., TikTok plays a critical role in ByteDance’s revenue growth prospects, and its possible suspension mirrors India‘s 2020 ban, which significantly reshaped the short-video app landscape.

The U.S. TikTok Ban: What’s Happening?

1. Supreme Court Upholds Ban Order

• On January 17, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a law requiring ByteDance to either sell TikTok’s U.S. operations or face suspension by January 19 on national security grounds.
• The law prohibits app distribution via Apple and Google app stores, imposing penalties on violators, but does not mandate the shutdown of already installed apps.

2. TikTok’s Stance

• TikTok announced it would “go dark” unless the Biden administration provides clarity to service providers.
• The platform’s lawyer confirmed to the Supreme Court that without action, the app will cease operations in the U.S.

India’s TikTok Ban: A Cautionary Tale

In June 2020, India banned TikTok and 58 other Chinese apps, citing national security concerns, resulting in:

1. A Sudden Market Void: TikTok, with 200 million users, was India’s largest short-video platform. The ban disrupted content creators overnight.
2. Growth of Competitors: Meta’s Instagram Reels and Google’s YouTube Shorts capitalized on the void, dominating India’s short-video market.
3. Local Startups Struggle: Domestic apps like Chingari and Mitron initially gained traction but struggled to sustain operations due to scaling and monetization challenges.

Who Stands to Gain from a TikTok Ban in the U.S.?

1. Meta and YouTube Lead the Pack

• Meta (Instagram and Facebook) is expected to capture the majority of TikTok’s reallocated ad spend, accounting for 42% of U.S. digital ad revenue by Q4 2025.
• YouTube is projected to take 29% of the market, further solidifying its position in the short-video space.

2. Smaller Platforms to Benefit

• Platforms like Snapchat, Pinterest, and X (formerly Twitter) will collectively capture 18.3% of the market.
• New entrants like China’s TikTok rival, Xiaohongshu (RedNote), have already seen a surge in downloads.

Trump’s Role in the TikTok Saga

1. Past Push for Ban

• In 2020, during his first term, Trump pushed for TikTok’s ban or sale.

2. Current Approach

• Trump has now pledged to “save TikTok,” stating that the Supreme Court’s decision should be respected but leaving the door open for negotiations.
• He is considering issuing an executive order to delay the ban by 60-90 days, giving ByteDance time to find a resolution.
• Trump has reportedly spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping and TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, signaling his willingness to collaborate.

TikTok’s Future in Limbo

1. ByteDance’s Challenges

• ByteDance faces mounting pressure to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations, with potential buyers such as Elon Musk rumored to be in discussions.

2. Strategic Significance of the U.S. Market

• With 170 million users, the U.S. is a cornerstone for TikTok’s revenue and user engagement globally. Losing this market would be a significant blow to ByteDance’s expansion plans.

3. Lessons from India

• India’s example highlights the immediate opportunities for competitors like Meta and YouTube to dominate the short-video market.
• TikTok’s U.S. users, like their Indian counterparts, may migrate to alternatives, reshaping the competitive landscape.

The TikTok ban saga represents a pivotal moment for the future of social media platforms, the short-video industry, and U.S.-China relations. Whether TikTok survives the ban or competitors fill the void, the outcome will reshape the digital ecosystem in the U.S., much like it did in India.