IPL 2025 Playoffs scenario: Punjab’s loss rocks top 4, race for Qualifier 1 intensifies between Mumbai, RCB, GT and PBKS

KKN Gurugram Desk | The race to the IPL 2025 playoffs may have concluded with the confirmation of the Top 4 teams — Gujarat Titans (GT), Punjab Kings (PBKS), Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), and Mumbai Indians (MI) — but the battle for the Top 2 spots, which determines entry into Qualifier 1, has reached its most thrilling phase.

Thanks to Punjab Kings’ unexpected defeat to Delhi Capitals, the entire points table has been shaken, adding fresh intrigue to the final week of the league stage.

Why Top 2 Matters in IPL Playoffs

For teams in the top 4, securing a place in the Top 2 is vital. The first and second-ranked teams get two chances to reach the final:

• They face each other in Qualifier 1

• The loser of that match gets another shot in Qualifier 2

Hence, while all four teams have secured playoff berths, their eyes are now firmly on the top two positions.

Current Points Table and Remaining Matches

Updated Standings (as of May 25, 2025):

All four teams still have one game left, and their fate will be decided in the last two days of the league — May 26 and 27.

Mumbai Indians: The Dark Horse with a Powerful NRR Advantage

Mumbai Indians, currently in fourth place with 16 points, have the highest Net Run Rate (NRR) of +1.292 among the top 4. Their final league match is against Punjab Kings on May 26.

Mumbai’s Qualification Scenarios:

1. If Mumbai beats Punjab:

   • They move to 18 points.

   • If RCB loses their final match, Mumbai will finish in Top 2 due to superior NRR.

   • If both RCB and GT lose, Mumbai could top the table with the best NRR.

2. If Mumbai loses to Punjab:

   • They remain at 16 points and are eliminated from Top 2 contention.

   • Their place in the playoffs remains intact, but they go into Eliminator instead of Qualifier 1.

Gujarat Titans: Leader Under Pressure Before Final Clash

Gujarat Titans sit on top of the table with 18 points, but their final league match is against Chennai Super Kings (CSK), a team looking to end the season on a high despite being out of the playoff race.

GT’s Scenario:

• If GT wins vs CSK:

  • They finish with 20 points and secure 1st position.

• If GT loses:

  • They remain on 18 points and risk being overtaken on NRR by any team winning their last game.

Even though CSK has been inconsistent this season, playing against them in Chennai can be tricky.

Punjab Kings: Narrow Path to Qualifier 1 After Costly Defeat

Punjab Kings’ defeat to Delhi Capitals not only ended their winning momentum but also jeopardized their Top 2 prospects. Now sitting on 16 points with an NRR of +0.327, Punjab must beat Mumbai Indians in their final league match on May 26.

Punjab’s Qualification Criteria:

• Beat Mumbai: Move to 18 points.

• Hope for Gujarat or RCB to lose, and win by a strong margin to boost NRR.

• Loss to Mumbai eliminates Top 2 hopes and possibly drops them to 4th.

Royal Challengers Bangalore: Destiny in Their Own Hands

RCB is also tied at 16 points but trails in NRR at +0.255. Their final match is scheduled for May 27, which means they will know exactly what is required based on other match outcomes.

RCB’s Top 2 Possibilities:

• Win their last game, and:

  • Hope for a Gujarat loss to make it a 3-way 18-point tie

  • Then, NRR will decide who finishes in Top 2

• Lose the match, and they go into Eliminator as third or fourth

In the best-case scenario, if Mumbai and Gujarat both lose, and RCB wins big, we could see RCB vs MI in Qualifier 1.

What If All Teams Reach 18 Points?

A three-way tie on 18 points could result in the closest NRR battle in IPL history. Here’s a potential scenario:

• Gujarat loses to CSK (remains at 18)

• Punjab beats Mumbai (moves to 18)

• RCB wins their final match (reaches 18)

Final standings would then depend solely on:

• Net Run Rate (NRR)

• Margin of victory or defeat in each match

• Team performances in powerplay and death overs

Mumbai has a significant NRR advantage but must win to stay relevant in the Top 2 race.

Remaining League Matches That Will Decide the Top 2

Match 1: May 26, 2025

• Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians

• Stakes: Winner gets 18 points; loser faces risk of missing Top 2

Match 2: May 27, 2025

• RCB (opponent TBD)

• Stakes: Must-win for RCB to enter Top 2; NRR will be critical

Match 3: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings

• Stakes: GT can lock 1st place with a win; a loss throws open the table

What Do the Fans Want? A Breakdown by Team

Mumbai Indians Fans:

• Want MI to beat PBKS

• Want RCB and GT to lose

• Best scenario: MI finishes 1st with 18 points and best NRR

RCB Fans:

• Want RCB to win their final match

• Want Mumbai and Gujarat to lose

• Hope for NRR to work in their favor

Punjab Kings Fans:

• Hope PBKS beats Mumbai

• Want RCB to lose and Gujarat to lose narrowly

• Need a boost in NRR to make Top 2

Gujarat Titans Fans:

• A win guarantees top spot

• Even with a loss, NRR may keep them in Top 2 if others don‘t win big

As IPL 2025 enters its final stretch, the playoff narrative has shifted from qualification to strategic positioning. While Gujarat Titans, Punjab Kings, Royal Challengers Bangalore, and Mumbai Indians have secured their playoff berths, who plays whom in the Qualifier 1 still hangs in the balance.

The next 48 hours will define:

• Who gets two chances at making the final

• Who must fight through the Eliminator

• Whether Net Run Rate becomes the ultimate decider in one of IPL’s most closely contested finishes

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